A bad case of asteroids

A busy week, but I couldn't let a passing space rock go untoasted even though it seems to have attracted a media frenzy - many happy returns, 2014 RC!

In the best churnalistic tradition, if one science editor picks it up then all the rest follow - never mind that other very close approaches go unmarked save by astronomical websites and the occasional obsessional blogger.

Once again, I feel rather peeved; it's like being a die-hard fan of an obscure indie band which has inexplicably gone mainstream and appeared on Saturday night television, complete with gyrating dancers and laser displays.

Perhaps this is something to do with the opportune appearance of the media-savvy Professor Brian Cox as (appropriately enough) honorary Chicken Licken to the nation, a position left vacant thanks to Lembit Opik's apparent desertion of the cause for rather more earthly attractions.

The media coverage inspired the Express, in particular, to hyperbolic flights of fanciful prognostication:

ASTEROIDS could rain down on the earth for 100 years, shocked experts have just warned.

which in turn, prompted this excellent debunking at Slate Magazine.

Meanwhile, investigators have been called in to assess a new crater in Nicaragua, which has raised the interesting question of fragmentation, bane of the Bruce-Willis-and-the-Nukes school of asteroid impact prevention.

According to JPL and NASA:

For those wondering, the event in Nicaragua (poss meteorite?) is unrelated to asteroid 2014 RC. Different timing, different directions.

which brings to mind the recent coincidence (?) of the Chelyabinsk meteor and DA14; will we one day be blindsided while all our attention is centred on another rock passing overhead?

All in all, it's a salutary reminder of our own insignificance in the face of whatever is hurtling round out there. In the words of John W Campbell (as quoted by Arthur C Clarke):

'Meteorites don't fall on the Earth. They fall on the Sun, and the Earth gets in the way.'

Back again!

So... I've opened the shutters and removed the worst of the dust in Tavern following a short absence; did anything important happen while I was away?

Certainly the election seems to have produced a predictable crop of nannying politicians telling us that the voters who failed to succumb to their blandishments and voted UKIP didn't really mean it  - "It's not big and it's not clever" - and Man's myriad inhumanities to Man (and Woman) continue, alas, unabated.

One thing that turns out not to be happening is the future impact of a 10-mile-wide asteroid, a headline which caused a media sensation on CNN's citizen journalism website:

"The asteroid is calculated to have a potentially lethal encounter with the Earth on March 35, 2041 [sic]"

Now, of course, the news story is 'Earth NOT to be hit by killer asteroid', which takes reporting of non-events to a whole new level. The whole thing appears to be the result of an enterprising hoax combined with lax editing at weekends.

Those of an apocaholic disposition who find themselves unaccountably bereft as a result can take small comfort in the fact that today brings a bumper crop of near-Earth approaches - six known ones in all - ranging from the 'big and far away' 2014 GD45, several hundred metres wide, to the diminutive 2014 KC45 passing a mere 80-odd thousand miles above our heads.

Five of these are recent discoveries, courtesy of new, improved surveillance. The recent spate of newly identified space rocks has been so dramatic that it has - mirabile dictu! - even brought about the return of Lembit Opik to the asteroid fold (and thence to a call for Clegg to resign; the leopard definitely hasn't changed his spots).

This is cheering news; although it appears Opik has been keeping the flame alight on the speaker circuit, he has, of late, been more active in other spheres when celestial bodies have hit the news. Perhaps his ill-fated foray into dog-show judging has finally convinced him where his true métier lies.

Despite the increase in the numbers, we still aim to drink to every near miss, which makes this evening something of a gala occasion; you are very welcome to pour yourself a drink (or six) and join me in a toast to tonight's clutch of space rocks.

Cheers!

Lembit takes his eye off the ball

It's party time again! Just in time for the Bank Holiday, astronomers have spotted yet another Near-Earth Asteroid.

2013 QR1 will make its nearest approach this time - at what space.com refers to as a 'safe distance' of 1.8 million miles - at 3.37am BST tomorrow morning, though enthusiasts can watch it in a webcast at the more civilized time of 5.30pm BST on Sunday.

Its recent discovery means that data from this pass will be needed to calculate whether there is any chance of a future impact, and there are still plenty more out there to be discovered, which rather calls into question the recent assurances that, based on current knowledge, we aren't in line for a strike for at least the next century.

“Finding 10,000 near-Earth objects is a significant milestone,” said Lindley Johnson, program executive for NASA’s Near-Earth Object Observations Program, "but there are at least 10 times that many more to be found before we can be assured we will have found any and all that could impact and do significant harm to the citizens of Earth.” 

Even leaving aside the question of all those 'unknown unknowns' still whizzing around up there, there's always the chance of a collision knocking one of the known ones onto a new trajectory. On a cosmic scale, it's always going to be a question of 'when', not 'if'.

And where's Lembit Opik while all this is going on? Surely this one-time stalwart campaigner for an asteroid early warning system has something to say on the matter? Unfortunately, he seems to have been occupied with matters rather closer to home:

'Former MP Lembit Opik bitten in the groin by a sausage dog while judging a charity pet show'

I suppose it's too much to hope that this will convince him once and for all that the celebrity life isn't all it's cracked up to be and that he should return forthwith to matters astronomical.

After all, while the USA gears up for an asteroid-based gold rush and runs competitions to find a useful method of deflection, no-one in Britain has yet stepped up to become, as it were, the face of asteroids.

This should leave the field wide open for Opik, once described as the 'Nostradamus of Westminster' for his dire prognostications of asteroid impact. After all, his previous alternative careers haven't exactly left him covered in glory and it's clear he has no future as a dog show judge.

Sadly, I suspect that his media antics have effectively disqualified him from becoming our national authority on the subject; should we one day face an imminent impact, I, for one, don't want to hear about it from an alumnus of 'I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here'.

Quote of the day - Armageddon edition

NASA Chief Charles Bolden, asked what NASA would do if a large asteroid headed on a collision course with Earth was discovered today with only three weeks before impact:

"If it's coming in three weeks, pray."

Startled into action by recent events that saw our normally quiet area of the solar system transformed into a cosmic shooting gallery, members of the US House of Representatives have been asking awkward questions at a specially-convened hearing.

There seemed to be a slightly aggrieved tone to the proceedings, as if these celestial fragments somehow constitute a deliberate personal affront to the Land of the Free, though it may simply have been a result of the mental contortions required to comprehend the relative probabilities and level of consequences involved.

Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), chairman of the Science, Space and Technology Committee, said it was "not reassuring" to learn that NASA has so far detected only about 10 percent of the near-Earth objects that are wider than 459 feet (140 meters) across.

It's funny, the way an asteroid or two whizzing past seems to focus the mind; a decade or so ago, asteroid detection was seen as a low priority by comparison with other more pressing issues, the sort of subject better suited to Hollywood or the occasional joke (see our own Lembit Opik). Small wonder NASA are feeling rather hard-done-by:

"You all told us to do something, and between the administration and the Congress, the bottom line is the funding did not come."

There has been plenty of research, of course, and passing rocks are being discovered and named at an impressive rate - always good news for those of us who regard a flyby as an excuse for a party -  but it's clear that the recent near-misses have drawn attention to the fact that, while we may see them coming, there's precious little any of us can do about it.

The Silence of the Lembit

Of all the people you might have expected to comment on the recent congestion in our cosmic neighbourhood - DA14, the Russian fireball, 2013 EC and ET  and the two smaller asteroids this weekend, plus a couple of comets coming up for good measure - Lembit Opik should surely have been high on the list.

After all, back in the late 90s, he was calling for the government to invest in asteroid detection systems and being described as 'The Nostradamus of Westminster' for his pains. Of course, young Lembit had a head start on the rest of us, being the grandson of astronomer Ernst Opik, a pioneer in the field who had the distinction of an asteroid named after him.

But now the general population is catching up and starting to get worried, what has Lembit Opik to say on the subject of the recent cosmic near-misses? Well, not very much, it appears; his mind is occupied with the rather more earthly body - or rather, brain - of Chris Huhne.

Having reinvented himself in grand style on several occasions - from politician to showbiz Lothario to stand-up comedian - Opik now appears to have entered the realms of psychoanalysis with his explanation of how things went wrong.

Intelligent, hard-working and very precise in his thinking, Chris displays ‘left brain dominance’ to a fault. 

This makes his style of interaction a weak link, and as a result he has made needless foes.

Well, it can't have helped, but I'm not sure it was his left brain Huhne was thinking with when he decided to abandon his formidable wife for another woman, setting in motion the epic revenge drama that has played itself out through the courts - though perhaps Opik might prefer to gloss over that particular aspect of the case.

It's certainly been a riveting story - and I admit I've put in my tangential pennyworth along with everyone else - but I can't be the only one wondering about Lembit Opik's resounding silence on the subject of celestial encounters while exploring the mental processes of a fellow-politician.

It's sad when a man starts out reaching for the stars and ends up with a handful of mud.

Out of the blue

No sooner have we seen the back of DA14 and the Russian fireball (and while we're still wrangling about whether the two are connected or simply a cosmic coincidence of truly astronomical proportions*) than another space rock is whizzing past our ear - in cosmic terms, at least.

The (very) newly-discovered 2013 EC has crept up on us unnoticed, which is hardly surprising, given it's only around 15 metres wide, and will pass just inside the moon's orbit at 7.35 this morning - sadly inconvenient timing for our usual celebration but you might like to give it a friendly wave as you eat your breakfast or travel to work.

Suddenly asteroid detection and diversion is the issue of the day in scientific circles, with conferences and calls for radical new strategies on every side; I imagine Lembit Opik is laughing hollowly to himself, having spent much of the 1990s being dismissed as the Chicken Licken of British politics for campaigning for that very thing.

It's an interesting result of improved technology; as our powers of observation increase, so does the perceived threat. The asteroids were always there, beyond the scope of our limited vision, just as disease-bearing microbes existed long before we had the means to detect them.

The same thing could be said for the DNA 'contamination' of meat**. The very nature of slaughter and preparation means that, for as long as humans have eaten animals, some form of cross-contamination must have been taking place at a microscopic level and it's hard to see how it can be entirely avoided.

Does knowing about it really make any difference?


*Frank Davies, for one, remains to be convinced by the official line. [link now corrected]

**The inspiration for a brilliantly satirical post by A K Haart published one minute after this one; perhaps coincidence is the order of the day after all.

Pass the witchetty grubs, Mr Cameron

Why, we ask ourselves, would Nadine Dorries want to take part in a televised spectacle which combines the primitive savagery of the jungle with the attention-seeking narcissism of modern celebrity?

Of course, we might ask the same question of the other 649 more-or-less honourable souls who merrily trotted off to Westminster after the last election to take part in what is surely the apotheosis of reality TV - brief interludes of raucous partisan conflict and occasional vicious back-biting interrupting hours of soporific tedium for months on end.

Someone at the BBC - raised on the 1960s orthodoxy that 'drama requires conflict' - clearly thinks we must all enjoy the unedifying spectacle of Prime Minister's Questions, so much so, indeed, that, in addition to the coverage on BBC Parliament, it is broadcast live on News 24; watch the baying mobs on two channels at once for twice the fun!

Nadine Dorries is likely to feel right at home in the jungle when she gets there, though exactly how she expects her absence to benefit her constituents is not clear. She is, of course, quick to point out that it will let her raise important subjects in a public forum (if not exactly the one to which they elected her), but then, outrageous justification is nothing new to her.

It is, after all, only a few years since she compared the Telegraph's revelation of MPs expenses to a witch-hunt and insisted, with almost Prescottian fluency, that the £24,222 Additional Costs allowance had always been counted as 'part of an MP's salary':

"Actually what it was spent on is possibly even regardless, because the principle is that lump sum of money, particularly for the old guard of MPs, we were told 'that's your due'."

However, her self-proclaimed motivation this time, although casting some doubt on her grasp of her day-to-day responsibility to her constituents (and, for that matter, the taxpayers who pay her salary), might just solve the problem of what to do with all the MPs when the Palace of Westminster undergoes its much-needed planned refurbishment in the near future:

"I'm doing the show because 16 million people watch it. 

If people are watching 'I'm A Celebrity', that is where MPs should be going"

Update:
Bad news for Ms Dorries: Lembit 'with friends like these...' Opik has publicly expressed his support. Oh dear!

"You get that exosphere tidied up right now, or you're grounded!"

The breasts of scientifically-minded Scots everywhere will be swelling with pride this week at the news that Strathclyde University has been chosen to lead a multi-million pound international research project.

The Stardust programme will examine ways to prevent space debris colliding with satellites in orbit and, more sensationally, investigate possible methods of deflecting asteroids on a collision course for Earth.

OK, so it's not exactly Bruce Willis and a bunch of nukes, but it's exciting enough news and long overdue if you consider that Lembit Opik was calling for something of the sort back in the 1990s, before he was attracted into a rather different orbit.

Unfortunately for the PR side of the project, it is headed by one Dr Massimiliano Vasile who, despite clearly having a brain the size of a planet (and a trendy beard), has not quite mastered the art of the media-friendly soundbite. Here he is on the subject of the twin targets of asteroids and space debris:

“The two share a number of commonalities. Both are uncontrolled objects whose orbit is deeply affected by a number of gravitational and non-gravitational interactions, both have an irregular shape and an uncertain attitude motion, and both are made of inhomogeneous materials that can respond unexpectedly to a deflection action."

It all makes perfect sense, of course, but it's not going to appeal to the man on the Clapham omnibus - or fire the imagination of tomorrow's potential space engineers. And it gets worse:

“Such a significant multidisciplinary technical challenge, with real societal benefit for the future, represents a compelling topic for a training network.”

It's certainly about time someone started a bit of orbital housework; the immediate vicinity of our planetary home is starting to resemble the floor of a teenager's bedroom and it is, frankly, embarrassing (though at least the odds of a visit from the neighbours are fairly remote).

More to the point, there's enough scrap metal whizzing about up there to do serious damage to satellites or manned craft. The scientists have four years to come up with something - ideas so far include lasers, nets and, most intriguingly, a sort of motorised spider with robotic arms, as well as motors to attach to rogue asteroids - and we shall watch their work with interest.

However, should they come up with a ground-breaking discovery and want to see it on the front pages complete with user-friendly quotes, it might be as well to ensure someone takes Dr Vasile out for a long celebration lunch and leaves a more media-savvy colleague to conduct the press conference.

Yippee! It's asteroid time again!

OK, so it's passing by 14 times as far away as the moon, but here at the tavern, a fly-by is always an excuse for a party.

3.2 million miles away may be uncomfortably close on an astronomical scale but 2002 AM31 is unlikely to put a spoke in Lord Coe's plans when it sails past just after midnight tonight, however appealing the prospect.

Still, it's good to see the astronomical establishment considering the apocaholic point of view for once:

Astronomy magazine's Bob Berman says, ‘Near Earth objects are no longer treasures only for the paranoid, or for those who secretly and strangely are rooting for an early apocalypse. [...] These are important entities. Not to mention, there’s always that exciting little hint of danger.

It's one of those odd statistical things; the chances of a substantial asteroid hitting us at any particular time are very small but the consequences if one does are so immense that it becomes a significant risk.

That one will hit Earth some day is a certainty. Recent estimates suggest there are around a thousand lumps of rock measuring over 1km across in orbits that intersect or approach our own, each with the potential to obliterate a country the size of England.

As a rough rule of thumb, a pea-sized fragment hits our atmosphere every 5 minutes, and a football-sized rock every month or so. We can expect something a little larger a couple of times a year and, every few centuries, something in the order of 40-50m across, the last one recorded being the Tunguska impact in 1908 (unless you believe that was an alien spacecraft, in which case you are probably reading the wrong blog).

With all this cosmic pinball going on, it is, perhaps, a shame that our own prophet of astronomical impact, Lembit Opik, has wandered from the true path, drawn into the orbit of some rather more earthly bodies, and abandoned his calls for research into asteroid detection and early warning systems.

Other nations are doing their bit, however; and it turns out that there are plenty of near misses - give or take the odd hundred thousand miles - from rocks we had no idea existed. While those of a nervous disposition might prefer not to know, we have truly entered a golden age for apocaholics, where the hellfire-and-brimstone of religion has been replaced by the strangely comforting ultimate certainly of celestial impact.

So, ladies and gentlemen, please raise your tankards and wish 2002 AM31 many happy returns!

Where's Lembit Opik when we need him?

A busy afternoon but I couldn't let this one pass unremarked. Opik may have strayed from his erstwhile preoccupation but some of us are still watching the skies:

An asteroid will pass by the Earth on Friday in something of a cosmic near-miss, making its closest approach at about 1600 GMT.

At its closest, the space rock - named 2012 BX34 - will pass within about 60,000km of Earth - less than a fifth of the distance to the Moon.

A near thing, in cosmic terms, but a long way from sending us the way of the dinosaurs; in any case, the asteroid in question, first detected on Wednesday, is a mere 11m in diameter.

There seems to have been some uncertainty about its exact path:

Earlier estimates put the asteroid's closest distance at as little as 20,000km, near the distance at which geostationary satellites reside, but observations overnight showed it will pass at a more comfortable distance.

That's quite a difference; the predictability of Newtonian mechanics is all very well but you can only calculate with the observational data you have available - in this case, that has evidently been subject to a certain amount of revision.

"It's one of the top 20 closest approaches recorded," said Gareth Williams, associate director of the US-based Minor Planet Center.

So quite a rare occurrence, then? Er, no; according to a NASA statement last year, an object of this size can be expected to come this close to Earth about every 6 years or so, on average. They may want to rethink that calculation, though...

The asteroid's path makes it the closest space-rock to pass by the Earth since object 2011 MD in June 2011.

That one, you may recall, passed us by at 12,000km, while in September 2010, one whizzed by a more generous 80,000km away. Certainly these are vast distances when you're talking about a rock a few metres in diameter, but it does suggest there are quite a few of the things up there.

So for all the apocaholics out there, don't worry; there'll be another one along soon! Meanwhile, we in the Tavern always regard a passing asteroid as the perfect excuse for a party; feel free to join us in spirit (or spirits).

So near and yet so far!

Apocaholics around the world might just be forgiven for heaving a secret wistful sigh as the catchily-named asteroid 2005 YU55 passes by a mere 325,000km away tonight.

We've known about this one for a while, unlike the two that took everyone by surprise when they came much closer last year; I suggested then that a fly-by was an excellent excuse for a party but, frankly, in the middle of the working week in November, I'm not sure I can summon up the enthusiasm.

In today's climate of austerity, it's almost surreal to think that Lembit Opik once drew up realistic plans for a National Asteroid Agency to scan the skies for approaching doom - although, as I remember, he wasn't particularly clear on what, exactly, we could have done about it.

Global news coverage has shown up some interesting variations in tone; while the Boston Globe is decidedly upbeat - Big asteroid to make close, harmless zip by Earth - the Wall Street Journal is far less sanguine - Asteroid to Just Squeeze Past Earth.

Meanwhile the Irish Times is milking the situation for all it's worth - Astronomers focus on asteroid hurtling towards Earth - and the New Zealanders are in full prophet-of-doom mode with Close-call asteroid would have devastating impact if it hit - either there's a closet apocaholic on their editorial staff or someone's having a really bad day.

Five Signs You Might Be an Apocaholic

It’s a surprisingly common affliction, though I didn’t have a word for it until I found it mentioned online (via Counting Cats), and has been around for a long time in guises ranging from the Book of Revelations to the myth of Atlantis.

Almost all religions have a clear end-of-the-world scenario, while atheists can enjoy comparing the rival claims of asteroid strike (though high priest Lembit Opik seems to have erred from the faith recently), solar flares, mega-quakes or, for the true cognoscenti, methane clathrate release.

It's mostly fairly distant stuff - though there's always the chance a Vogon constructor fleet might pop up out of the blue - unless, of course, you believe Harold Camping's assertions that the end of the world starts tomorrow. However, those apocalyptically inclined might like to feast their eyes on this at Nourishing Obscurity.

Of course, the true apocaholic doesn’t just recognize the possibility of these events occurring; the main symptom of the condition is a warm, happy glow derived from the prospect of complete global annihilation, preferably in a spectacular geological fashion.

It’s not the actual catastrophe that appeals, you understand – apart from anything else, there’s hardly going to be a safe place to stand and watch – but the contemplation of cosmic forces at their most literally awe-inspiring. If that's your sort of thing, you can have hours of fun at Armageddon Online (h/t Demetrius).

Were apocaholism confined to atheists, one might say it fulfilled a deep-seated need to stand in awe of something greater than ourselves – the fact that it transcends religious differences suggests it is rooted in us at a basic level. Who knows; perhaps one day they will isolate an apocalypse gene.

Meanwhile, you know you’re an apocaholic when:

• There’s a well-thumbed copy of Bill McGuire’s ‘Global Catastrophes’ on your bedside table
• The US Geological Survey website is on your favourites list and you have a google news alert for 'asteroid'
• You have a food and water cache under the stairs
• You watched Horizon’s Armageddon special last week - and, at the end, you found yourself shouting “Tell me something I don’t know!”
• Deep down, a small part of you is secretly hoping Harold Camping might be right after all

Update: The Filthy Engineer has picked up another possibility. 

Meanwhile, the Urchin has come across a fantastic idea - what if all the workmates and neighbours of Camping's adherents spend tomorrow hiding, leaving the place completely deserted? 
"Hey guys, weren't we the ones supposed to be raptured?"

Being prepared on a grand scale

“It's all very well and good preparing for a giant earthquake, but in the end you might as well plan for a meteor strike or a volcano.”

That was the opinion of an unnamed police officer after a three-day police exercise simulating a major earthquake striking our green and pleasant – and usually very static – land.

The event was officially described as ‘extremely unlikely’ and ‘unthinkable’; Britain may get between 200 and 300 quakes a year but the vast majority are so small that the only people going to get excited about them are seismologists who don’t get out much.

Granted, the £826,000 cost of the exercise is a lot of money, given the fact that we may never see an earthquake measuring 8 on the Richter scale, but one assumes the lessons learned could be applied in other circumstances:

‘The disaster, recreated near Portsmouth, caused motorways and apartment blocks to collapse, oil storage plants to be damaged and cars to start burning. In Merseyside the mock exercise involved creating an “urban street scene” complete with burning buildings, trapped “victims” and 40 smashed up cars.’

It doesn’t take an earthquake to cause any of these, as the inhabitants of Buncefield or Warrington could tell you. And if I’m ever caught in a disaster of that kind, I’d like to know that there was someone out there who had an idea of what should be done.

And, of course, if Lembit Opik is to be believed, there’s always the chance that there is an asteroid out there with our name on it.

Whoops! There goes another one!

Remember Lembit Opik? Once upon a time, before he got all starstruck, his preoccupation was the rather less flamboyant subject of asteroids, specifically how to detect them and prevent them turning most of us into history (and those nearest the strike zone into geography).

Lembit never got his wish; there is no National Asteroid Agency - which is probably all for the best, as it would surely have been high on the list of the Coalition's potential cutbacks. And in any case, there's reason to believe it wouldn't have been very effective.

With all the technology at their disposal, NASA told us barely hours ago that a couple of asteroids were on their way past. The first passed 284,000 km away at 9.51 GMT this morning and the second was a scant 80,000 km away at 9.12pm GMT.

The first was estimated at 15m diameter and the second at 10m, so even if they had impacted we wouldn't have gone the way of the dinosaurs, but one can't help feeling it would have been nice to have a little more notice - not least because it's a great excuse for a party.

In fact, these fly-bys are far from uncommon in the cosmic billiards game of the solar system - turn out there are little asteroids popping up all the time. Anything under 10m would probably burn up on entry, so we weren't really in any danger from the nearest observed miss to date (6,500 km, 31st March 2004 - 6m diameter).

The thing is, that one wasn't spotted either until hours before its approach. So if the big one is out there with our name on it, when will we know? Will we have enough time to build and stock shelters, and for Morgan Freeman to make philosophical and inspiring speeches? Or will there be nothing but an undignified scramble?

For those of us who grew up in the era of 'Protect and Survive', the idea isn't so unfamiliar - oblivion from a clear sky with almost no warning. Would we handle it with dignity - or would it be better not to know at all?