Profit of doom

If you're planning to jet off for a late-August holiday abroad, it might be an idea to work out an overland route home just in case.

Iceland's Met Office on Monday raised its risk level to the aviation industry for an eruption at its Bardarbunga volcano to orange, which is the fourth level on a five-grade scale.

The alert has been prompted by an 'earthquake swarm' in the area. While there's no sign of an imminent eruption, the local authorities are concerned enough to have closed roads in the area as a precaution against floods caused by melting of the Vatnajokull glacier.

An explosive eruption could produce an ash cloud similar to the one that grounded European aircraft in 2010 (regular readers may remember the saga of the nephew stranded in Sicily after a field trip to study a resolutely uncooperative Mount Etna - should have gone to Iceland!).

It was a massive eruption in the Vatnajokull area that led to catastrophic famine in Iceland in the 1780s and arguably contributed to the French revolution by causing crop failures in France; while the Icelanders are now far better equipped to survive, the impact of a similar event on the aviation industry today would have far-reaching economic consequences.

It's a salutary reminder that Nature has plenty of surprises up her sleeve for those who rely too heavily on modern technology. Still, at least it appears that the recent rumours circulating of an imminent Yellowstone supervolcano eruption - also based on seismic activity - have been dismissed as a hoax.

We predicted a few months ago that, with the summer dearth of asteroid close approaches and nothing scoring more than 0 on the Torino Scale, apocaholics would be looking elsewhere for thrills 'so look out in the coming months for dire predictions of mega-tsunami, solar flares and the release of methane clathrates'.

Sure enough, in recent weeks we have been treated to

Killer solar superstorm could destroy Earth at ANY MOMENT, scientists warn (Express)

along with the interestingly forthright

'We're f*****': Climate change will be catastrophic for mankind after study reveals methane leaking from the Arctic Ocean, scientist warns (Daily Mail)

and, although no mega-tsunami scares have emerged recently, the media have been making up for it with exciting headlines about the 'killer asteroid headed straight for us' which actually translates as 1950 DA's 1-in-300 chance of impact eight centuries hence.

The prospect of a potential volcanic eruption in the near future must therefore have been greeted with delight in many newsrooms, however grimly it may be viewed by those potentially on the receiving end. In short, disaster sells.

Meanwhile, in the Tavern, it's been a long time since we toasted a passing space rock and the next one isn't due until mid-September.

Perhaps we should start drinking to volcanoes as well.


Update: The Cynical Tendency takes a more intellectual approach and examines the political implications of a serious eruption.

Contains moderate peril

We don't tend to get excited about asteroids unless they pass within the Moon's orbit but, in the case of 2013 XY8, we're prepared to make an exception.

2013 XY8 will be zipping past a mere 750,000-odd km away later today - or two lunar distances -  but, according to NASA's Near Earth Object Program, after a few more passes, the 40m wide asteroid has a 1-in-1,120 chance of an Earth impact on the 12th of December 2095.

This gives NASA & Co plenty of time to investigate ways to deflect it should the odds shorten further, though it is, in a way, disappointing that current reports suggest the favoured option will not be painting it white to increase solar deflection.

Unless someone comes up with an equally elegant and ingenious solution, we're back to Bruce Willis and the nukes.

All this talk of asteroid deflection may, of course, be rendered entirely academic if things start hotting up at Yellowstone's volcano. New measurements released this week show that it's about 2.5 times bigger than early estimates suggested:

The team found that the magma chamber was colossal, reaching depths of between 2km and 15km, the cavern was about 90km long and 30km wide.

The BBC report includes a spectacular simulated satellite view of a massive ash cloud emanating from the area, then spoils the effect by adding a caption which helpfully states the bleeding obvious:

It is unclear when the Yellowstone supervolcano will erupt again

Since all the calculations are based on three known eruptions, and the margin for error is in the order of millennia, the chances of anything kicking off in the lifetime of this blog are remote - though I promise I'll post on it the minute I hear of something happening there.

It's a reminder that, in the geological scheme of things, we are about as important as bacteria on the surface of a football; if enough of us act together we can cause some unsightly blemishes and bad smells but the football, by and large, ignores us.

I have a great respect for geologists, who somehow navigate the existential perils of what is essentially Douglas Adams' Total Perspective Vortex:

The prospective victim of the TPV is placed within a small chamber wherein is displayed a model of the entire universe - together with a microscopic dot bearing the legend "you are here". The sense of perspective thereby conveyed destroys the victim's mind.

Here in the Tavern, we  prefer to retreat to the immediate certainties of a brimming tankard and a worthy toast.

Ladies and gentlemen, let us drink to 2013 XY8 - many happy returns!

Behold the wrath of Hephaestos!

A perceptive and possibly prescient post by Demetrius yesterday warned that, 'Iceland is having one of its bumps and bangs, a largish volcano may or may not be in the process of erupting.[...] Being Iceland if one vent goes up there are many more that could follow. Just like their banks used to be.'

This morning we woke to find flights acrosss the UK grounded by volcanic ash, an interesting mixture of rock, glass and sand which definitely does not agree with jet engines. While this lethal concoction drifts about at the inclination of the wind, thousands of would-be passengers wait on the ground for normal service to be resumed.

It's a salutory reminder that, for all our advanced technology, the forces of Poseidon and Hephaestos can still stop us in our tracks. The only winners in this situation are the airport businesses currently raking in a fortune - after all, once you're through security, there's nothing to do but eat, drink and go shopping.

Or, of course, pray - under the circumstances there will be people who feel that a bit of supernatural intervention wouldn't go amiss if they're about to take their chances in the air. There's a certain irony in the fact that airborne beings of one kind or another feature in almost every main religion you can think of.

From the Olympians to Ezekiel, from Quetzalcoatl to the - rather apposite - Valkyrie, the skies have been crowded for millenia with the various deities and their messengers, while priests acted as a sort of spiritual air traffic control.

These days, even an Easyjet flight allows a mere mortal the chance to enjoy a god's-eye view; should we be surprised that on occasion they choose to assert themselves and punish our hubristic invasion of their sphere?

Update: Just heard from my nephew, due back tomorrow from a geography field trip to a stubbornly inactive Mount Etna (having just missed last week's minor eruption there) and, ironically, stranded in Sicily until further notice. Should have gone to Iceland!

Readers with a robust sense of humour may enjoy the long-running thread 'God Hates Iceland' at the Landover Baptist Church.